If you’re like me, you’ve probably read a lot about the coming Republican wave. It has been the narrative of nearly every news story about the 2010 election. Indeed, most news agencies have assumed that 2010 will be a massive Republican landslide – overtaking Democrats everywhere. Most polling has also taken that assumption when they develop their “likely voter” models.
What we’ve been told is that Republicans will show up to vote in droves; conversely, we’re told that the Democrats will stay home in massive numbers. It makes for a great storyline — and it gives talking heads something to discuss when they would rather not focus on the issues or the latest flip-flop by Ken Buck.
Here’s the problem with that narrative: the facts aren’t supporting it.
In Colorado, a massive percentage of the electorate votes early. Many vote by mail, and others vote at early vote centers. With the technology that we have, we can see who has voted already and who has not. And we can tell whether those voting are Democrats, Republicans, or Unaffiliated. What we’re learning is that 2010 is shaping up to look a lot more like 2006 — when the Democrats won a lot of close races — than 1994.
A first thought might be to compare turnout in 2010 with 2008. However, that would be a mistake — a big mistake. 2008 was a banner year for Democrats, and it’s a year we’re not likely to see again for a while. Any election turnout compared to 2008 would look bad for Democrats. 2006 is a closer parallel: it was a non-Presidential year, and many of our targets were/are similar to what they are in 2010. Plus, when we’re looking at State Senate districts, 2006 was the last year each of these Senate districts was challenged (because the State Senate consists of districts with staggered 4-year terms, only half of the districts are up for election each cycle).
What I’ve done is compare the partisan differential in early vote / mail ballot turnout for each legislative and congressional district in 2006, 2008, and 2010. What that means is if 40% of the votes cast were by Democrats and 38% of the votes cast were by Republicans, the differential would be a net of +2 points for the Democrats. This is by no means a perfect method, and there are some assumptions that may or may not be correct in this method (such as that the remaining early votes and mail ballots will be cast in roughly the same proportions as today).
Further, this analysis takes into account only partisan voting patterns. It gives us an idea of our GOTV efforts. It doesn’t tell us how individuals are actually voting — especially those who are Unaffiliated. While the voting patterns below give us some hope, it does appear that Unaffiliated voters are less likely to vote Democratic in 2010 than in recent years. That’s something we have to keep in mind and work over the next week to further our persuasion efforts.
Finally, I originally thought about keeping the below thoughts to myself, or just sharing it with Party folks on Santa Fe Ave. in Denver. I had concerns that maybe I was helping the Republicans see where they have weaknesses. But here’s the reality: none of the information I’ve used to get the numbers below is proprietary; the GOP has exactly the same numbers, and I’m certain they’ve done exactly the same analysis. So I don’t think I’m giving away the keys to any secrets with this DemNotes post.
With all that being said, here are where we stand on key races, and where I think you can make the most difference helping out with last-minute dollars between now and election day (I apologize in advance if your favorite candidate isn’t mentioned or suggested – we have way too many amazing candidates in 2010 to mention them all):
Statewide
Statewide, Democrats have cast 37% of the votes to date; Republicans have cast 42% of the votes. That’s a five-point difference between the two parties. In 2008, at the top of the Democratic surge, those numbers were even. However, in 2006 — a good year for Colorado Democrats by any measure — Republicans outvoted Democrats by SIX points.
Read that again: Democrats are voting early at a better clip than they did in 2006.
While there have been a couple of media outlets that have mentioned this number, the vast majority have chosen to ignore it. Why? Because it doesn’t match with the narrative they’ve decided to write.
Where can you make a difference statewide? Donate to one of our three fine down-ticket races: Bernie Buescher, Cary Kennedy, or Stan Garnett. All three are in tough, close battles:
http://www.berniebuescher.com/
http://www.kennedyfortreasurer.com/
http://www.garnettforag.com/
Congressional
Our Congressional races have gotten a lot of oxygen — and airtime — the past couple of months. We’ve been told that every Colorado Member of Congress is in trouble; there have even been starry-eyed Republicans posting on blogs like ColoradoPols that Jared Polis and Diana DeGette are in trouble.
The reality is that while we can’t afford to take any race for granted — and the Republicans are spending millions of dollars on CD3, CD4 and CD7 — the sky isn’t falling. The turnout in CD 4 is two points better for Dems than in 2006, and it’s the best of all seven districts when compared to 2008. CD 4 is the toughest race in Colorado, but our Democrats in Northern and Eastern Colorado are working hard to turn out the vote, and it is showing. In CD3, the difference between 2006 and 2010 is only one point better for the Republicans, and John Salazar has proven his mettle in Southern and Western Colorado. Finally, in CD 7, the GOP is spending heavily against Ed Perlmutter, but relative Democratic turnout is two points better than in 2006.
Where can you help in the Congressional races? It’s simple: give to Betsy Markey. Now.
http://www.markeyforcongress.com/
State Senate
Republicans have hopes of capturing one of the two chambers in order to muck up the decennial redistricting efforts. They’ve put a lot of money into a select few races. That money, though, isn’t translating into Republican turnout. In SD 11, John Morse has turnout numbers that are five points better than when he first won in 2006. In SD5 and SD6, Sens. Schwartz and Whitehead, respectively, have respectable turnout numbers that should prove effective.
We’ve been playing a lot of defense across the board. But the State Senate has a race that screams “Democratic Pickup” this year. In SD2, Democrat Gloria Stultz has quietly been able to amass a turnout machine that has surprised observers in Denver. In fact, the turnout differential in SD2 is exactly the same as in 2008 — the Democratic high water mark. It’s five points better than in 2006. To top it all off, Gloria has a mainstream campaign, while her opponent is a tea-party darling and brags about his militia connections. Southeast Colorado isn’t a fan of extremism from either party.
So how can you help the State Senate efforts? Give some last-minute donations to put Gloria over the top:
(She doesn’t have online donation capability, so send donations to this address:)
Stultz for Senate*
1415 Main Street, Suite A
Cañon City, CO 81212
State House:
It seems, with the utter collapse of the GOP’s efforts to take the Governor’s Mansion, that the Republican Party is especially focused on the uphill battle to take the State House. A number of key Dems are term-limited, and the Republicans think they have a chance to win here.
The number of targeted races is breath-taking — but so is the margin the Republicans have to make up to take control.
Dennis Apuan has been heavily targeted in Colorado Springs in HD17; however, his differential is 8 points BETTER than the differential in HD17 in 2006. Similarly, Pete Lee is looking to hold on to Michael Merrifield’s seat in El Paso County’s HD18; he’s doing a point better than the 2006 numbers for that district, when Merrifield handily won re-election.
In Metro Denver, Max Tyler’s numbers look very similar to 2006′s numbers, when Gwynn Green held onto the seat. Sara Gagliardi has been mentioned as a target, but her numbers are two percentage points better than in 2006, and only two points off of the high-water year of 2008. Debbie Benefield is doing a point better than in 2006, as well. Diane Primavera has number that look just like the numbers in that district in 2006. Joe Rice is doing two points better in HD38 than in 2006. Nancy Todd’s number in HD41 are a whopping five points better than in 2006.
In Northern Colorado, Jim Riesberg and John Kefalas have districts whose comparative turnout numbers are better than in 2006. In HD56, Christine Scanlan is three points better than in 2006. In HD47, where I live, Carole Partin still has a five point Democratic advantage over Republican votes, although that margin is down from 2006 and 2008. In HD61, where Unaffiliated votes are stronger than almost anywhere else, Democratic turnout seems to be suffering from Kathleen Curry’s write-in campaign. I will be blunt: I like Kathleen Curry personally, but if you live in HD61 and you’re a Democrat, writing Curry’s name on the ballot is the equivalent of voting to put a Republican in office. It is simply too close to throw away your vote like that.
So, where can you help in the State House? It’s hard to pinpoint, but I’d suggest sending a donation to Joe Rice, Sara Gagliardi, and Pete Lee:
http://www.votejoerice.com/
http://www.saragagliardi.org/
http://www.votepetelee.com/
That’s it. That’s where we are. Today. Tomorrow, maybe the GOP wave will come. Tomorrow, maybe the Tea Party will show up. But today, they haven’t. We have a job to do. We have to get Democrats elected up and down the ballot. We have to work like heck to ensure that Unaffiliated voters know that the future of Colorado depends on electing Democrats to office.
I’ve not written this rather long post in order to create complacency; rather, I’ve written in the hopes that everybody out there will understand exactly how close this election is. We all have a choice: either we can sit back and bemoan the coming Republican victories (in which case the media narrative becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy), or we can roll up our shirtsleeves, and get out to fight like hell for the Change we won in 2008.
But mark my words: neither defeat nor victory are predestined as of October 25, 2010.
(*In the interests of full disclosure, I’d point out that I’m the Chair of SD2, and my wife is Gloria Stultz’s treasurer. That doesn’t change the fact that the numbers are on our side in this race, and it may be one of the Democrats’ biggest pickup opportunities at any level in Colorado in 2010.)