DemNotesBlog for Colorado Democrats by State Party First Vice Chair Dan Slater

Most of you have probably heard the Earth-shattering news this morning: a Denver Post poll of likely voters in the 5th Congressional District found Democrat Jay Fawcett and Republican Doug Lamborn TIED at 37 percent in the race for Congress. This news is burning up the Democratic blogosphere, and likely making some GOP heads explode in Colorado Springs. Here’s some from the Post’s story:

In what may be the starkest depiction yet of the challenges Republicans face in maintaining control of Congress, a new poll shows the party is fighting to hold on to a traditionally Republican seat in Colorado Springs.

No Democrat has won in the 5th Congressional District since it was created in 1972, but Democrat Jay Fawcett is tied with Republican Doug Lamborn, according to a poll conducted for The Denver Post by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Fawcett and Lamborn each have 37 percent of the votes, while 26 percent of voters in the six-county district remain undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 3 through Saturday and included 400 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

“It appears that Lamborn is now the first Republican who has ever had to fight hard to take that seat,” said Bob Loevy, political-science professor at Colorado College. “A seat that should not have been competitive for the Democratic Party, as a result of a number of unusual events coming together – if the poll is correct – now appears to be competitive.”

Kate Bedingfield, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said she believes the scandal involving U.S. Rep. Mark Foley’s sexually explicit e-mails to teen congressional pages may have influenced the poll results.

Foley, a Florida Republican, has resigned.

“Given the current climate, there is no such thing as a safe Republican seat,” she said.

This is obviously good news, and it meshes with some of the private polling that the Fawcett campaign has done (actually, I’ve seen the full polling results from the Fawcett Campaign’s August poll, and this Denver Post poll is showing a good positive trend for Fawcett).

But we’re also hearing of another private poll — this time in the too-often overlooked 6th District. Bill Winter is running a tough campaign against Tom Tancredo, and I’m hearing rumors from a number of very credible D.C. sources that there is a private poll out there showing Winter and Tancredo TIED, as well. While we’ve seen a lot of attention paid to the 7th, 4th, and 5th C.D.s, this is quite impressive news. It also meshes with what we’re seeing from Tancredo’s campaign; he’s been spending a lot money to attack Bill Winter in the past few weeks. Tancredo wouldn’t pay any attention to Winter unless he thought Winter was a threat. A tie in the 6th C.D. means it is within the realm of reason that we could control all SEVEN of Colorado’s Congressional Districts after this November!

Wow. Here’s the problem: there are now probably over 50 seats — maybe as many as 70 — where the Dems have a great chance at winning. The Democratic Party’s Congressional campaign arm simply isn’t designed to focus on that many seats. They are literally overloaded with good news. So if we want Fawcett and Winter to win, we’re going to have to do it ourselves. Go right now to each of their websites and volunteer to help, and donate to their causes:
http://www.fawcett4congress.com/
http://www.winterforcongress.com/

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There have been a lot of talk about endorsements, but I just saw a few endorsements that I hadn’t seen before arrive in the mail this morning. My office subscribes to Esquire Magazine. This year, they’ve decided to endorse in every race for Governor, U.S. Senate, and Congress. Here’s a bit of what they had to say about Colorado’s races:

[Governor]:
Democrat Ritter has held a lead almost from the beginning of this race. Voters seem to appreciate his tough but pragmatic work as Denver’s DA and his centrist Catholic liberalism. Beauprez is paying a price for his unfailing fealty to the Bush administration. Esquire endorses: Ritter.

[CD1]:
DeGette represents a liberal district, a mix of urban and bohemian communities, and she’s a dyed-in-the-wool liberal herself. She’s also politically astute and has strung together some impressive legislative wins in a hostile House. Esquire endorses: DeGette.

[CD2]:
Mark Udall is a scion of the legendary Udall family, the Kennedys of the American West (minus the vast wealth and snobbery). He maintains his forebears’ tradition of wise land stewardship, regional and bipartisan political focus, and aversion to unnecessary war. Esquire endorses: Udall.

[CD3]:
Salazar accomplished a rare feat in 2004, becoming one of only two Democrats to take open Republican seats. His pro-gun, pro-agriculture, local-guy image outshone his opponent’s Karl Rove Playbook tactics. Esquire endorses: Salazar.

[CD4]:
Marilyn Musgrave’s conservatism is instinctual and extreme; like one of those pull-string dolls, she only has a few things to say, and she repeats them in an endless loop. Among other things (bashing gays, opposing gun locks, approving torture), this ideologue voted to reduce veterans’ benefits during wartime. Esquire endorses: Paccione.

[CD5]:
It’s unfortunate that this district automatically votes Republican, because — a rare thing in safe districts of either party — the opposition’s nominee is worthy of serious consideration. Jay Fawcett is a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who’s demanding answers to crucial but rarely asked questions of strategy in the war on terrorism. Esquire endorses: Fawcett.

[CD6]:
See “The Worst Members of Congress,” page 199. Esquire endorses: Winter.

[CD7]:
Hand in glove with his campaign to secure the border, Rick O’Donnell is leading a quixotic though honorable campaign on a platform of reducing human trafficking. Perlmutter’s campaign is more expansive, intelligently addressing problems from the war to health care. Esquire endorses: Perlmutter.

This isn’t even up on the Web yet, so I had to retype the above from the print publication. Now, before you start saying, “Yeah, big surprise. A liberal publication endorsed all Democrats,” let me advise you that they endorsed an awful lot of Republicans around the country in key races, as well (Arnold Schwartzenegger in California’s governor’s race, for one). And they’re not afraid to take on progressive Dems, either. The 6th CD description refers to a sidebar, “The Worst Members of Congress.” Who joins Tancredo on that list? Nancy Pelosi! FYI, here’s what they said about Tancredo:

Tancredo is Tancrazy. Made his name calling for mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Recently was the featured speaker at a meeting of the League of the South, described by the Southern Poverty Law Center as a “neo-Confederate hate group.” In a rare moment of clarity, he called his own suggestion that he run for President “idiotic.”

Folks nationally recognize what we already know in Colorado: We have great candidates running against some of the nation’s worst Republicans.